Monday, June 30, 2008

A rough day in the gutter

Today was a rough day in the gutter.

It started out with my overnight holdings. BPG gapped up, only to immediately and very quickly sell off. I got out at 53 cents, ending up with a $45 loss.

Looking back, this was not a good trade. Yes, it was a breakout, but if you look at the 2-year chart, you see that it's simply a bounce on an extremely bearish trend. I should've paid attention to the 200 day simple moving average (sma, the blue line in the chart), showing a strong down-trend.

As Tim Sykes says, there's a lot of bitter shareholders in a chart like this who are looking to sell off during any bounce.
LESSON LEARNED: Don't buy breakouts into the close with decreasing 200 day sma's and bearish charts
Next came TIV, which opened below its closing price. It very quickly dipped below 8, where I sold at $7.89 for a $124 loss. Ouch.
Looking back on this one, I got in because I thought it was a G/STEPS Pattern. However, I was wrong. The volume on the pullback was too high. To fulfill the pattern, the volume on the pullback needs to be a fraction of the initial surge. Really, this was nothing more than a big bounce after a major sell-off. Thus, another bad trade and money that I shouldn't have lost in the first place.
LESSON LEARNED: G/STEPS patterns need to show a very low volume pullback

After two losses to start the morning off, combined with my 2 straight losses on Friday, I was feeling discouraged. Plus, I had way too many charts I was looking at. I ended up missing the breakout on GETG, which was at the top of my breakout watch list. I can't believe I missed this one....I had been watching it for this exact move for a few weeks now. It ended up going all the way to $3. But I was too busy looking at other charts that weren't nearly as good of a setup.
LESSON LEARNED: Don't watch too many stocks at once. Only keep an eye on the most ideal setups

I was also discouraged that I didn't buy into CNEH on Friday like Sykes, Fous, and other traders had. I missed a really nice gap-up because I was tied up in not-so-ideal plays.

HYGS was another breakout I missed on Friday due to being caught in less than ideal plays.



Another play that I actually was looking at this morning, but hesitated due to my discouragement, was HTOG. HTOG was showing the reversal step of a G-Pattern. I sat there at the computer, seeing it green at around .0055, thinking about getting in...but I didn't. It ended up shooting from just over .0005 cents to .0008 cents. Another missed profit.


I did try to play QTWW on the $3 break today. Got in at $3.02. It hovered in the low 3's for a while, only to dip below $3 where I sold at $2.97 for a $55 loss.
While it was a good play based on the chart pattern, I knew earnings were going to be announced after the market close. I should've avoided this play as you don't want to hold something into earnings. While I didn't hold it into earnings, it wasn't worth it to buy into in the first place because I wouldn't been able to hold it overnight if it had a strong breakout move. So this was my 5th losing trade in a row...a loss that could've been avoided.
I'm feeling a bit discouraged now, as my account is almost back to the $4823 that it was on June 10th. I should be up waaaayyyy more if I hadn't done so many bad trades. I need to refocus and learn from my mistakes. I also need to be way more choosy about my trades. I've had too many trades the past number of days because I was choosing less than ideal setups. I also need to cut down on the number of potential plays I'm watching, so that I don't miss great plays like CNEH or GETG.
So, tomorrow on my watchlist, I only have one potential breakout play....CSGH. I'm looking for the $1.50 break.



CSGH is a stock being pumped by Jonathan Lebed. Let's hope for a combination of a good chart, Lebed's pumping, and maybe some news to get this thing running.
I'll also be looking for any good prehits in Mike's chatroom.
Tomorrow is the first day of the month, so let's hope for a good turnaround in my recent trading as well.
Gutter Account Stats (all of these are my account values at the market close FYI)
June 10th: $4823.46
Yesterday: $5178.68
Today: $4856.64

Today's overall loss: $-322.04 or -6.22%
Gain since June 10th: $33.18 or 0.69%
Compared to S and P 500 since June 10th: -5.9%
Positions traded for a loss:
BPG: $-45.45
TIV: $-123.92
QTWW: $-54.90

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