The great thing about the TradePerformance software is I can break down my performance by ticker or by sets of tickers. Thus, I tediously went through all my trades over the past 3 weeks, identifying which tickers were preleaders/prelosers and which ones were day rangers. I then ran the stats on both sets.
Here's the stats for the day rangers. Pay attention to only the long trades in the middle column.
Trading Statistics - Selected Trades
| | All Trades | Long Trades | Short Trades |
| Net Profit | 1763.088 | 1430.273 | 332.815 |
| Total Gains | 3036.183 | 2541.558 | 494.625 |
| Total Losses | (1273.095) | (1111.285) | (161.81) |
| Ratio of Gains to Losses | 2.3849 | 2.2870 | 3.0568 |
| Number of Trades | 149 | 135 | 14 |
| Number of Winning Trades | 91 | 83 | 8 |
| Number of Losing Trades | 58 | 52 | 6 |
| Percentage of Winning Trades | 61.074% | 61.481% | 57.143% |
| Percentage of Losing Trades | 38.926% | 38.519% | 42.857% |
| Largest Winning Trade | 195.00 | 195.00 | 95.66 |
| Largest Losing Trade | (65.70) | (65.70) | (48.00) |
| Average Winning Trade | 33.3646 | 30.6212 | 61.8281 |
| Average Losing Trade | (21.9499) | (21.3709) | (26.97) |
| Average Trade | 11.8328 | 10.5946 | 23.7725 |
| Win/Loss Ratio | 1.5200 | 1.4328 | 2.2926 |
| Average Winning Trade Length | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Average Losing Trade Length | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Maximum Consecutive Winners | 10 | 9 | 4 |
| Maximum Consecutive Losers | 7 | 10 | 4 |
| Expectancy | 11.8328 | 10.5946 | 23.7725 |
| Expectancy Percent | 53.9082% | 49.5750% | 88.1497% |
| Mathematical Expectation | 0.5391 | 0.4958 | 0.8815 |
| Kelly Maximum Bet Size | 0.4475 | 0.4464 | 0.4312 |
| Kelly Maximum Reduced 50% | 0.2238 | 0.2232 | 0.2156 |
Copyright (c) 2000-2008 SCG Associates, LLC. All Rights Reserved
TradePerformance is a Trademark or Registered Trademark of SCG Associates, LLC in the United States and other countries
And here's my stats for going long on the preleaders/prelosers. Again, only look at the stats for the long trades column.
Trading Statistics - Selected Trades
| | All Trades | Long Trades | Short Trades |
| Net Profit | 536.5394 | 703.1994 | (166.66) |
| Total Gains | 1542.5994 | 1542.5994 | 0.00 |
| Total Losses | (1006.06) | (839.40) | (166.66) |
| Ratio of Gains to Losses | 1.5333 | 1.8377 | 0.00 |
| Number of Trades | 93 | 85 | 8 |
| Number of Winning Trades | 51 | 51 | 0 |
| Number of Losing Trades | 42 | 34 | 8 |
| Percentage of Winning Trades | 54.839% | 60.00% | 0% |
| Percentage of Losing Trades | 45.161% | 40.00% | 100% |
| Largest Winning Trade | 98.325 | 98.325 | 0.00 |
| Largest Losing Trade | (62.53) | (62.53) | (56.145) |
| Average Winning Trade | 30.2470 | 30.2470 | 0 |
| Average Losing Trade | (23.954) | (24.688) | (20.832) |
| Average Trade | 5.7692 | 8.2729 | (20.832) |
| Win/Loss Ratio | 1.2627 | 1.2252 | 0.00 |
| Average Winning Trade Length | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 |
| Average Losing Trade Length | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Maximum Consecutive Winners | 9 | 6 | 0 |
| Maximum Consecutive Losers | 6 | 3 | 8 |
| Expectancy | 5.7692 | 8.2729 | (20.8325) |
| Expectancy Percent | 24.0849% | 33.5096% | (100.00)% |
| Mathematical Expectation | 0.2408 | 0.3351 | 0 |
| Kelly Maximum Bet Size | 0.2539 | 0.3823 | 0 |
| Kelly Maximum Reduced 50% | 0.1269 | 0.1912 | 0.00 |
Copyright (c) 2000-2008 SCG Associates, LLC. All Rights Reserved
TradePerformance is a Trademark or Registered Trademark of SCG Associates, LLC in the United States and other countries
Thus, it is evident that I perform better longing the day rangers versus the preleaders. While my winning % was only 1.5% higher, my ratio of gains to losses was 24% higher, and my winning trade/losing trade ratio was 16% higher. I also averaged over $2 more per trade.
Now, I obviously have an edge in both cases. It's just slightly better for the day rangers. Thus, I'll put more focus on those in the first 15 minutes of trading. I'll still continue to go long on preleaders, but maybe be a bit more selective.
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11 comments:
Hi Yngvai,
Great job on the consistency. Good to see your hard work is paying off. I just had a thought on the long trades being more profitable as of late that I would throw out there. Perhaps the long winning percentage is a result of the bulls seemingly being in control as of late. Plus as of late buyers seem to be willing to come in on a dip whereas 4 months ago any pullback would bring on additional selling. Perhaps just an assessment of the intermediate trend would be helpful in determining which types of plays of the pre-leaders/losers will have greater odds of being profitable.
Don't know if that makes any sense in light of your trading rules but after reading your post I thought it was something I'd throw out there. Again great work!
Blz,
Thanks for the comment.
Keep in mind these stats are only comparing long preleaders to long day rangers...the purpose isn't to compare long to short performance. Still, you are right that these stats are also potentially a function of market conditions. Things probably will change as time goes on. The nice thing is though that there are many ways to play these things so if, say if longing becomes less profitable, I can start shorting the preleaders/prelosers more. Of course my trading rules automatically take care of that in a sense anyway...since I only tend to buy intraday breakouts near HODS or short intraday breakdowns near LODS. Thus, a shift in market sentiment would automatically cause a shift in the plays I do.
does some of that have to do with the fact that you see some of the alerts in the chat. I mean if you went with out chat for a few months how would that affect your performance?
I almost never trade the chat alerts anymore. I've been using StrategyDesk for my alerts for a while now. I've probably only traded 2-3 chat alerts in the past 3 weeks.
I'm a member of IU and about to join CyGroup...what are the commission fees? Are there any monthly fees?
Anon,
IU members pay .007 per share. There is also a monthly data fee for NYSE, NASDAQ, and AMEX data feeds which runs about $100/month for all 3. But you can pick which data feeds you want; if you don't trade stocks on AMEX you don't need the data feed for it.
Hi yngvai, did you find the investorunderground chat room and web site useful?
What are your experience with it? I am new to your site, so please point me to your entries if you have written about them previously.
I am working full time, and would like to dabble part time into trading. Any recommendations or suggestions? I am not sure if I can afford the time during the all the market hours to trade stocks.
Great site you have here, and it seems you have come a long way and have put in lots of effort.
Good luck and all the best!
Congrats!
Thanks, guys!
Spaniel,
I've been a member of the IU chat for a long time...in fact I was a member when they were called the GreenontheScreen chat last year. Much of what I learned about trading has come from Muddy's methods. While I don't trade off the chat alerts much anymore (I use StrategyDesk for my alerts now), my experience there has been very positive.
Muddy's method does take a lot of time to learn, however. It's taken me a year to finally get to where I'm at. You don't need to be able trade full time to take advantage of it, though. Johnny Vento has been a member of the chat for along time too, and he just trades part time using Muddy's methods. But we've both adapted his methods to our own style of training. It takes time to find what works for you, and it does take a lot of work and practice.
They have some very useful seminars in there. You should try the free trial just to get a feel for what goes on in the chat room. Also, take a look at some of Tim Sykes stuff. While I find Tim's marketing and arrogance annoying, he is the guy that I first learned how to trade from, and he's got good stuff when it comes to short selling ridiculous run-ups (like AGEN and HEB last week).
If you are looking to trade, I would start with either paper trading or very small amounts of real money. That way you don't blow a bunch as you try to learn.
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